Today is the day the Iran war’s diplomatic clock runs out. The two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 7 — the pause that prevented a resumption of US-Israeli strikes on Iran — expires Tuesday evening Washington time, which is Wednesday morning in Tehran. And everything that could make the final hours of diplomacy maximally chaotic is happening simultaneously.
The Clock and What It Means
As of now, the truce — which Trump announced April 7 — is set to end Tuesday evening ET. Officials have not said whether it expires at exactly the time Trump announced it (6:32 PM ET) or at midnight. Either time would be Wednesday morning, April 22, in Iran.
Trump said Monday the ceasefire with Iran ends “Wednesday evening Washington time,” adding it’s “highly unlikely” he would extend it if a deal is not reached before then.
The US Delegation Is Moving
Vice President JD Vance and other senior US officials are expected to travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, on Tuesday ahead of a potential second round of talks between US and Iranian delegations. A second round of talks is currently planned for Wednesday in Islamabad, according to sources, but they noted the situation remains fluid due to continued heated public rhetoric from both the US and Iranians.
Trump confirmed to the New York Post that Vance, Witkoff and Kushner are part of the round two delegation. “A US delegation plans to travel to Islamabad soon,” a source familiar with the matter told CNBC on Monday morning.
Iran’s Contradictory Position
Iran’s Foreign Ministry earlier insisted there were no plans for talks “as of now.” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said at a news conference Monday that there are no plans to attend negotiations with the US, multiple outlets reported.
But that public position may not be the full picture. The New York Times, citing two senior Iranian officials, reported later Monday morning that a delegation from Tehran is making plans to head to Islamabad on Tuesday. The situation remains fluid.
The Security Picture in Islamabad
Security in Pakistan’s capital Islamabad was stepped up visibly on Sunday ahead of upcoming peace talks. Authorities announced road closures and traffic restrictions across the city and in neighbouring Rawalpindi.
Armed guards and checkpoints appeared near Islamabad’s most secure hotels, including the Marriott and the Serena, where the last round of talks took place. Most streets leading to the Serena Hotel were closed, with barbed wire, barricades and heavy security.
The physical infrastructure of talks is in place. The question is whether both delegations arrive.
The Hormuz and Blockade Picture
Only 16 ships traversed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, as ship captains and owners remain cautious in the face of the shaky ceasefire. The US blockade, which CENTCOM says has forced 21 ships to turn around since it began, is still active.
The ceasefire expires in hours. The delegations are moving. Islamabad is locked down. Everything that happens in the next 12 hours will define the shape of the war — or the peace — for months to come.
