The most alarming single data point from Saturday was not a diplomatic statement or a military threat. It was the number on gas station signs across America: $4.45 per gallon — up 34 cents from one week ago.
The Week-Over-Week Move
The average cost of gasoline in the United States rose to $4.45 a gallon on Saturday, according to AAA data. Gas prices have increased by 34 cents from a week ago and $1.47 since the start of the war in Iran on February 28.
A 34-cent weekly increase represents a pace that, if sustained for another three weeks, would put national average gas prices above $5.50 before the end of May. The mathematical trajectory is not sustainable — either a deal emerges that begins the process of Hormuz reopening, or the economic damage forces a political resolution that the diplomatic track has not yet produced.
The Scale of the Hormuz Collapse
Shipping traffic in the crucial Strait of Hormuz has dropped by more than 90% since the conflict in the Middle East began, the UK Royal Navy said in a statement on Friday, warning that the gridlock in the shipping lane was causing not only a “strangulation of international trade,” but also a looming humanitarian crisis for the roughly 20,000 seafarers stuck on ships in the waterway.
Supplies are now down from about 20 million barrels a day before the conflict — and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — to close to one billion barrels a day in April, maritime intelligence group Kpler said Friday. “While a gradual recovery may begin from June, the rebalancing is incomplete, leaving the global oil market tighter and increasingly reliant on inventories and demand adjustment,” Kpler said.
From 20 million to 1 million barrels per day. That is a 95% reduction in actual oil flow through a chokepoint that carries 20% of global supply. Kpler’s projection that “a gradual recovery may begin from June” is contingent on a deal in May — which is precisely what the 14-point proposal and Trump’s review are now racing toward.
CENTCOM: 48 Ships Turned Back
The total number of Iranian ships that have been forced to turn around by the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is now up to 48 over the last 20 days, according to US Central Command. Three ships have been redirected in the past 20 hours, according to CENTCOM.
48 ships in 20 days. The blockade is running. Iran’s storage is filling. The wells face shutdown. And gas at $4.45 is the daily domestic political referendum on how long this can continue.
