The World Meteorological Organization’s 2026 Global Annual-to-Decadal Update, released on Thursday, finds that global temperatures are overwhelmingly likely to exceed the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold again before 2030 — with a new El Niño event expected to make 2027 the most probable candidate for the next record-breaking year.
The timing of the World Meteorological Organization’s annual climate forecast could not be more pointed. Published on Thursday — the same week that the UK recorded its hottest May day since 1922, France reported heat-related deaths from an unprecedented early-season heatwave, and the Middle East remained gripped by a conflict that has, among its many other effects, disrupted global energy supply — the report provides the scientific baseline for understanding what all of those events have in common.
“Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the next five years,” the WMO said. “It is likely — with an 86% chance — that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.”
The report, produced by the UK’s Met Office for the WMO and drawing on analysis from 13 international climate institutions, is the most authoritative near-term temperature forecast available to policymakers and the public. Its findings this year are, by any measure, stark.
The Key Numbers
There is a 91% chance that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial baseline for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.
There is a 75% chance that the 2026-2030 five-year mean temperature will surpass the key threshold of 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
Annual global mean near-surface temperatures during 2026-2030 are predicted to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.
Global warming is likely to surpass 1.5°C for the next five years, breaching a threshold that countries set in the 2015 Paris climate accord, and 2027 is set to be the next year of record-breaking heat.
Each of these figures represents a significant escalation from projections made just a few years ago. Between 2017 and 2021, there was a 10% chance of the 1.5°C threshold being exceeded in a single year. That probability now stands at 91% for the entire 2026-2030 period. The trajectory is not ambiguous.
What 1.5°C Actually Means
The 1.5°C threshold enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement was not chosen arbitrarily. It represents the level of warming above which climate scientists expect impacts to become significantly more severe and, in some cases, irreversible.
At 1.5°C of warming, the world experiences more frequent and intense heatwaves, more severe rainfall events, more rapid sea level rise, and greater loss of coral reef ecosystems than at current temperatures. At 2°C, all of those effects intensify considerably — the difference between the two thresholds has been described by scientists as the difference between a world that is very difficult to adapt to and one that is catastrophic for many communities.
The 1.5°C figure refers, under the Paris Agreement, to long-term average warming sustained over a 20-year period. The WMO is clear on this point: “The 1.5°C and 2.0°C levels specified in the Paris Agreement refer to long-term warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years. Individual years with annual global mean temperatures exceeding these levels do not mean that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach.”
But the distinction between a temporary annual breach and a permanent long-term breach is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain as both the individual-year probability and the five-year average probability approach certainty. The 75% chance that the entire 2026-2030 five-year mean exceeds 1.5°C is a figure that sits uncomfortably close to what would, if sustained, constitute a formal breach of the Paris target.
The El Niño Factor
Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the WMO report, said the prediction of El Niño for the second half of 2026 “increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.” Researchers warn that a strong El Niño risks supercharging extreme weather conditions, contributing to more severe wildfires and droughts in some regions and storms and floods in others.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterised by the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It does not cause global warming — that is driven by greenhouse gas emissions — but it does add a temporary additional layer of heat to an already warming planet. When El Niño occurs on top of the baseline warming produced by human-caused emissions, the combination can push annual temperatures to exceptional levels.
The last major El Niño event contributed to 2023 being the second-hottest year on record and 2024 being the all-time high — at around 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average. With a new El Niño predicted for the second half of 2026, 2027 carries the highest probability of being the year that surpasses even 2024’s record.
What the Report Says About Regional Impacts
Arctic sea ice during March between 2026 and 2030 is going to reduce further, especially in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and the Sea of Okhotsk. Arctic sea ice loss is not merely a regional concern: it accelerates global warming through the albedo feedback effect, whereby reflective white ice is replaced by darker ocean water that absorbs more solar heat, further warming the planet in a self-reinforcing cycle.
The WMO report’s regional projections also point to continued shifts in precipitation patterns — areas that are already wet tending to become wetter, and areas already prone to drought tending to experience more severe and prolonged dry conditions. These patterns have direct consequences for agriculture, water security, and human displacement.
The May 2026 heatwave in Europe — which saw the UK record 34.8°C, breaking a record that had stood since 1922, and France report heat-related deaths — sits within the pattern the WMO is describing. The first major heat wave of the season broke temperature records across northwest Europe, triggered water shortages in the UK, and has been linked to several deaths in France. That event arrived in May. The historical norm is for heat extremes of this magnitude to occur in July or August. The distribution of extreme heat across the calendar year is itself shifting.
The Gap Between Science and Policy
The WMO report lands in a political environment that is, to put it carefully, not characterised by ambitious climate action. The United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement in January 2025. The Iran war and its energy market consequences have created political pressure in several countries to expand oil and gas production rather than accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels. And the global economy’s current preoccupation with energy security — driven directly by the Hormuz closure — has pushed climate considerations further from the centre of policy attention than they were even six months ago.
In the next five years, the Earth is overwhelmingly likely to surge again and again past the international climate threshold set as safe and shatter its hottest-year record along the way, according to the new UN climate projections.
The language of probability — 91%, 86%, 75% — can obscure the human reality of what these numbers describe. They describe a world in which the summer that broke records across Europe this week is not an exception. They describe a world in which the May that shattered 102-year-old temperature records in London is not anomalous. They describe a world that is moving, consistently and measurably, toward conditions that the 2015 Paris Agreement was specifically designed to prevent.
What Happens Next
The WMO will publish its next State of the Global Climate report later this year, assessing 2026 as a full year once its data is complete. The next major international climate policy moment is COP32, scheduled for late 2026 — a gathering that will take place with the WMO’s forecasts as background, and with the political will of member states as the determining factor in whether those forecasts produce any meaningful policy response.
The science is not uncertain. The trajectory is clear. The WMO warned: “The 1.5°C figure is not some random statistic. It is rather an indicator of the point at which climate impacts will become increasingly harmful for people and indeed the entire planet.”
The question that remains — as it has remained for decades — is not whether the planet is warming or how fast. It is whether the political systems built by human beings will respond at the speed and scale the physics demands.
LoudFact.com is an independent global news and explainer platform. This report is based on the WMO Global Annual-to-Decadal Update published May 28, 2026, and reporting from Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, Climate Home News, Down to Earth, and NBC News as of May 28, 2026.
