Iran and the United States held their fire Sunday, handing Gulf shipping and the oil industry a respite from missile strikes as Donald Trump’s UN envoy said the president was “giving talks some space”. Iran said it had halted retaliatory attacks against Washington’s allies in the Middle East, and US ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz told “Fox News Sunday” that, while forces remained “locked and loaded”, Trump would give negotiations “a little bit of room”. Prior to Friday, the US military had carried out strikes on Iran for 13 consecutive nights, in the largest rekindling of the almost five-month-old war since an April ceasefire.
What Waltz Said — the “Some Space” Declaration
President Donald Trump is allowing talks with Iran to develop during this weekend’s apparent pause in strikes, a top US official said Sunday. “What the president is doing right now, as we’ve seen all along, is giving some talks some space. Talks are ongoing. They’re happening at every level, from the more technical aspect of it all the way to the highest levels,” Mike Waltz, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”
UN ambassador Mike Waltz told “Fox News Sunday” that the United States remained “locked and loaded” for more attacks and that “more assets have gone into the region,” but that Trump is “giving talks some space — he’s giving it a little bit of room.”
He reiterated in an appearance on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” that Trump “is giving diplomacy a chance.”
The deliberateness of the pause — confirmed publicly by the US Ambassador to the UN across three separate Sunday morning television appearances — is qualitatively different from the operational pauses that occurred earlier in the conflict. This is not a gap in strike announcements explained by weather, operational tempo or tactical repositioning. It is a deliberate diplomatic pause, acknowledged as such by the administration’s most senior UN representative, in response to a diplomatic engagement that Waltz described as happening “at every level.”
The Munitions Acknowledgement — and Why It Matters
The most unexpected element of Sunday’s Waltz appearances was his acknowledgement of depleted US stockpiles.
Waltz also appeared to acknowledge that “a lot of stockpiles are depleted,” though he insisted the US still has “everything that it needs” to continue its military campaign. In a meeting last week, Trump administration officials discussed the possibility of a major escalation in the war, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine raised concerns about the level of US munitions needed for such a campaign.
But Waltz underscored that the pause in fighting is to allow for an opportunity for peace — not because of an insufficient weapons supply, and warned that those leaking information to the press about the U.S. not having sufficient weaponry “deserve to be in jail.”
The simultaneous acknowledgement that stockpiles are depleted and the insistence that the US has “everything it needs” creates a tension that analysts noted immediately. The Joint Chiefs chair raising concerns about munition levels before a potential escalation is a significant fact — it confirms that the military’s own assessment of readiness is a factor in the diplomatic pause, regardless of the public framing.
The depleted stockpile context is the same reality that LoudFact reported Saturday: PAC-3 interceptors are being consumed across Ukraine, Gulf states and US Middle East forces faster than Lockheed Martin and Raytheon can produce them. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs’ concerns are not limited to air defence interceptors — they extend across the broader munitions inventory that the 13-night strike campaign has drawn down.
What Iran Did Simultaneously
Iran said it had halted retaliatory attacks against Washington’s allies in the Middle East. The simultaneity of the US pause and the Iranian halt is significant. Neither side has announced a formal ceasefire. Neither side has acknowledged any agreement. But both sides stopped shooting at the same time — which, in the context of 13 consecutive nights of mutual strikes, carries the weight of a signal.
Iran sold $11.5 billion worth of oil during the war and another $6.5 billion during the subsequent ceasefire, Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad claimed July 25, according to Reuters. Paknejad also said the lower risk to tanker traffic during the ceasefire boosted exports and had allowed Iran to sell part of its roughly 100 million barrels of stored crude oil and gas condensate. The combined $18 billion in sales generated more than 60% of the oil revenue projected in Iran’s annual budget.
The Iranian oil minister’s disclosure — that the ceasefire period generated $6.5 billion in oil revenue for Iran, well above war-period levels — provides the clearest single data point for understanding Iran’s economic incentive to return to diplomacy. Iran needs oil revenue. Oil revenue requires shipping lanes to be open. Open shipping lanes require a ceasefire. The economics of the conflict point toward negotiation even when the political and military dynamics point elsewhere.
What Happens Next
Cutting off funding for the Iran war is not a viable solution, but Trump administration must soon seek congressional approval for its strategy, according to Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La.
The two-night pause, the Waltz television circuit, the Iran halt and the oil minister disclosure have collectively shifted the Iran war’s trajectory — at least temporarily. Whether this becomes the beginning of a new ceasefire framework or collapses within days as the previous frameworks have done depends on three variables: whether the diplomatic talks Waltz referenced at “every level” produce a concrete framework proposal; whether Iran’s IRGC honours the halt despite its “binding command” to avenge Khamenei; and whether Trump’s posted AI images of attacking Iran represent his actual intention or his negotiating posture.
All three are genuinely uncertain. What is certain is that the weekend of July 25-27, 2026, produced the most significant de-escalatory signal in the war since the Versailles ceasefire was signed on June 17.
