President Trump is expected to meet leaders and foreign ministers from all six Gulf Cooperation Council countries on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York next Tuesday, a gathering that could determine whether Washington pursues renewed diplomacy or intensifies military operations against Iran in the war’s next phase.
What Happened
Axios reported Wednesday, citing three sources with direct knowledge, that the State Department sent initial invitations for the meeting, which is expected to include representatives from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, with one source saying the gathering could expand to include other Arab and Muslim leaders. The talks are expected to focus on US ideas for a postwar strategy as Trump and his senior team work on a broader “day-after” plan they intend to finalize only after November’s midterm elections.
“I want to find out where they are and how they are doing. We have been very protective of them,” Trump was quoted as saying regarding the Gulf states, several of which have absorbed direct Iranian strikes throughout the conflict’s various escalation phases. Axios reported the meeting could “shape the next phase of the war, including whether to make another push for diplomacy or intensify military action,” and that if Trump wanted to resume major combat operations, he would “need buy-in from his regional allies.”
Trump reiterated Wednesday that he believes Iran wants to reach a deal, telling CNN “we hope we are getting close to the end of the war. They want to make a deal, and we’ll see how it goes… Iran really wants to make a deal.” He said Iran is suffering “devastating losses” and that Washington could conclude an agreement “at any time we want,” while declining to say whether he would decide on the path forward before or after the midterms.
Why It Matters
The meeting represents a significant moment for Gulf states that have borne substantial costs from a war they did not initiate, including missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain, giving Trump’s framing of seeking their input added weight given how directly their territory and infrastructure have been affected throughout the conflict.
Axios’s characterization that Trump would need regional “buy-in” for any resumption of major combat operations suggests Gulf states may hold more leverage over the war’s trajectory than their public statements have indicated, particularly given the economic toll the conflict has already inflicted on regional oil production and shipping.
The decision to defer the “day-after” plan’s finalization until after the midterm elections keeps the war’s ultimate resolution tied to the US domestic political calendar, a pattern that has repeated throughout the conflict and that regional analysts have suggested may itself be shaping how long Iran calculates it should continue resisting negotiation.
Context and Background
The meeting comes as the Strait of Hormuz remains a central point of contention, with Iranian officials having previously linked the waterway’s reopening to conditions concerning US military withdrawal and sanctions relief, and as a separate planned meeting between Iran and GCC states in Oman was postponed earlier this month “in the interests of consensus.”
Saudi Arabia’s chief of defense forces separately discussed the regional situation with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during his visit to China this week, with particular focus on Houthi attacks and the possibility of reviving stalled direct US-Iran talks, according to an official familiar with the discussions, indicating parallel diplomatic tracks continuing alongside next week’s planned New York gathering.
The Houthis have engaged in renewed fighting with Yemen’s government forces since July, when they declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, and have recently claimed advances along the Red Sea coast and the Bab al-Mandab strait, adding a further complicating factor to the regional security picture Gulf leaders are expected to raise with Trump.
Analysis
Regional diplomacy analysts note that expanding the meeting to potentially include other Arab and Muslim leaders beyond the core GCC six would signal an effort to build broader regional consensus around whatever postwar strategy emerges, given the war’s effects extending well beyond the Gulf specifically into Lebanon, Yemen, and the broader Red Sea security environment.
Some foreign policy observers point to Trump’s explicit acknowledgment that resuming major combat would require Gulf allies’ buy-in as an unusually direct admission of how dependent continued US military operations have become on regional basing and support, a dependency that gives Gulf states genuine influence over the war’s next phase regardless of Washington’s stated determination to act unilaterally if necessary.
Analysts tracking the parallel Saudi-Iran diplomatic contacts through China suggest Gulf states may be pursuing their own independent channels toward de-escalation alongside their engagement with Washington, reflecting the complex, multi-track nature of regional diplomacy surrounding a war none of the Gulf states directly chose to join.
What Happens Next
Tuesday’s meeting will be closely watched for any indication of whether Gulf leaders push for continued diplomacy or express openness to expanded US military action, given Trump’s stated need for their buy-in before any major escalation. The broader “day-after” plan’s finalization timeline, deliberately set for after the midterms, means concrete policy shifts are unlikely to emerge immediately from next week’s talks.
Continued parallel diplomatic engagement, including the postponed Oman meeting and Saudi-Iran contacts through intermediaries like China, will remain important to monitor alongside the higher-profile New York gathering as indicators of where the conflict may be heading in the weeks ahead.
