President Trump called on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to halt strikes on Russian diesel refineries Sunday, blaming Kyiv’s campaign against Russia’s oil infrastructure for a global fuel shortage, even as his own war against Iran has knocked out more than 20% of Middle Eastern refining capacity and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
What Happened
“Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” Trump told reporters Sunday at his Doonbeg golf club in Ireland, where he was attending the Irish Open. “Let him go after targets, but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel.” Trump added that the diesel shortage “isn’t done by the Middle East. This is done by what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine,” and confirmed he had already raised the issue directly with Zelensky.
The comments came two days after US diesel prices hit a record average above $6 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA data, driven by a combination of factors including Ukraine’s intensified drone campaign against Russian oil refineries, which has prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports until the end of September, and the separate disruption to Middle Eastern refining and shipping caused by the ongoing US-Iran war. Overnight before Trump’s remarks, Ukrainian forces claimed fresh strikes on refineries in southern Russia and Tatarstan, building on previously reported attacks on facilities including the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl and the Saratov oil refinery.
The International Energy Agency said “disruptions to Russia’s refining system and a near-halt to product exports following intensified Ukrainian attacks have compounded these losses,” noting that combined net diesel and gasoil exports from the Gulf and Russia in August were 1.6 million barrels per day lower than in February, when those two sources together accounted for almost 45% of global seaborne diesel trade. Jared Kushner, Trump’s envoy, told reporters “Ukraine right now does not want to do that,” referring to halting the refinery strikes.
Why It Matters
Trump’s specific framing, attributing the diesel crisis to Ukraine’s actions rather than the war he and Israel launched against Iran in February, notably omits the substantial and independently documented role his own conflict has played in disrupting Middle Eastern refining capacity and closing the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that normally carries a significant share of global fuel exports.
The IEA’s data showing combined Gulf and Russian diesel export losses approaching half of pre-war global seaborne trade levels underscores that the current fuel crisis reflects the compounding effect of two simultaneous conflicts rather than a single dominant cause, complicating Trump’s attempt to isolate Ukraine’s refinery campaign as the primary driver.
For Trump specifically, the diesel price spike carries direct political stakes ahead of November’s midterm elections, given that elevated fuel costs are already squeezing business revenue and pushing up consumer prices through higher transportation costs, adding to the broader affordability concerns that have weighed on his party’s electoral prospects throughout the Iran conflict.
Context and Background
Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil refineries has intensified significantly in recent months as part of Kyiv’s broader strategy of raising the economic and military cost of the war for Moscow given the largely static nature of ground fighting along the front lines, with recent strikes hitting major facilities including refineries capable of processing millions of tons of oil annually.
Russia’s decision to ban diesel exports through the end of September reflects the direct domestic impact of Ukraine’s refinery strikes, with the resulting reduction in Russian export volumes rippling through global fuel markets given Russia’s significant historical role as a diesel and gasoil supplier to international buyers.
Trump’s war against Iran, which began with strikes on February 28, has separately disrupted more than 20% of Middle Eastern refining capacity and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping traffic, a waterway that historically carried roughly a fifth of global oil and gas supply, providing a second major and independently significant source of the current fuel market disruption.
Analysis
Energy market analysts note that Trump’s specific request for Ukraine to redirect its strikes away from diesel infrastructure while continuing to pursue “other targets” reflects an attempt to manage the political fallout from rising US fuel prices without directly acknowledging his own war’s substantial contribution to the broader global energy disruption.
Some geopolitical analysts, including those cited in independent commentary on the situation, have questioned whether Trump might actually have mixed incentives regarding Ukraine’s refinery strikes, given that further reductions in Russian oil exports could theoretically serve broader US strategic objectives even as they contribute to the domestic political liability of rising fuel prices.
Trade and energy economists point to the IEA’s specific figures on Gulf and Russian export declines as providing an unusually clear, quantified picture of how directly two ostensibly separate conflicts have combined to create a compounding global fuel supply crisis, with implications for prices and availability likely to persist as long as either conflict remains unresolved.
What Happens Next
Whether Zelensky heeds Trump’s request to redirect Ukraine’s strikes away from Russian diesel infrastructure specifically will be closely watched, particularly given Kushner’s comments suggesting Kyiv currently has no intention of doing so given the strategic value it places on continuing to disrupt Russia’s oil-driven war financing.
Continued volatility in global diesel prices remains likely given the unresolved status of both the Iran war and Ukraine’s ongoing refinery campaign, with markets likely to remain highly sensitive to further developments in either conflict as the fall season approaches and heating oil demand typically increases.
