The indefinite ceasefire extension Trump announced Tuesday night produced exactly the contradictory Iranian response that Washington has been navigating for weeks. Within hours of the announcement, Iran’s civilian diplomatic apparatus and its IRGC military command issued statements that pointed in opposite directions.
The Civilian Signal: Open to Talks
Iran’s United Nations envoy Amir Saeid Iravani said after Trump’s announcement: “As soon as Washington ends the naval blockade, I think the next round of negotiations will be held in Islamabad.”
Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s correspondent said there was no official response to Trump’s ceasefire extension, but officials signalled openness to talks. The US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as a violation of the truce, but commanders said forces are fully prepared to respond to any escalation.
This is the civilian faction speaking — the same Araghchi-Ghalibaf team that has consistently favoured negotiation over confrontation and that flew to Islamabad for the first round of talks. Their message is clear: lift the blockade and we’ll come back to the table.
The IRGC Signal: Ploy, Not Peace
One Iranian senior official said the ceasefire announcement “means nothing.” The continuation of the US blockade is a “siege” that is “no different to bombardment,” according to Mahdi Mohammadi, a senior adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator Ghalibaf. He wrote: “The extension of the ceasefire by Trump certainly means buying time in order to deliver a surprise strike. It is the time for Iran’s initiative.”
“It is the time for Iran’s initiative” — that language from an IRGC-aligned hardliner is a call for military action, not diplomacy. It reflects the same faction that refused to send a delegation to Islamabad on Tuesday and has consistently opposed concessions under what it sees as coercive blockade conditions.
Why the Blockade Is the Pivot Point
Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi said the continuing US naval blockade is “an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire.” Trump responded by saying the blockade would remain until a final deal is struck: “THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE,” he wrote.
The impasse is structural: Iran says lift the blockade before talks; the US says the blockade stays until there’s a deal. One side has to move first. The civilian team in Tehran believes the economic damage of the blockade — estimated at $500 million per day in lost oil revenue — will eventually force the IRGC to allow them to negotiate. The IRGC believes the blockade is itself an act of war that justifies military retaliation.
Which faction wins that internal argument — and how quickly — is the single variable that will determine whether the open-ended ceasefire produces a deal or simply delays a resumption of war.
