After 69 days of war, five successive Iranian peace proposals, two collapsed rounds of Islamabad talks, a 48-hour Project Freedom operation, UAE missile attacks, and a diplomatic circuit through Pakistan, Oman, Russia, China and Germany, the specific document that would formally end the Iran war has a confirmed shape.
Axios published it Wednesday evening, citing two US officials. It is the most important single piece of diplomatic reporting of the entire conflict.
What the MOU Contains
The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) is being negotiated between Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators. In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran’s nuclear program and lift US sanctions.
Those negotiations could happen in Islamabad or Geneva, two sources said. Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait and the US naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period, according to a US official.
Three elements of this formulation are transformative. First: “declare an end to the war.” Not a ceasefire extension. Not a pause. A formal declaration that the war is over — the legal and political threshold that no previous proposal has crossed. Second: “30-day period of negotiations.”
This is the phased structure that Pakistan’s mediators have been pushing since round one — a defined timeline with a defined agenda, replacing the open-ended ceasefire framework that has produced successive violations from both sides. Third: “gradually lifted during that 30-day period.” The blockade and the Hormuz restrictions would both ease simultaneously, in parallel with the negotiations — giving both sides incremental economic relief tied to diplomatic progress rather than all-or-nothing concessions at the front end.
Why the 14 Points Bridge the Gap
Iran’s 14-point plan — submitted last week — called for ending the war, opening Hormuz, lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, paying reparations, and deferring nuclear talks. The US 9-point demand — confirmed through the negotiating record — required nuclear limits upfront, Hormuz opening without tolls, and missile programme restrictions.
The MOU being negotiated resolves this conflict with a specific architectural solution: commit to the process of negotiations on nuclear limits within the 30-day period, rather than requiring agreed nuclear limits as a precondition for the MOU itself.
Iran can sign an MOU that starts nuclear negotiations without having agreed to nuclear limits. The US can sign an MOU that starts nuclear negotiations without having accepted that those negotiations will succeed.
Both sides get something: Iran gets a war-over declaration, gradual blockade lifting, and economic relief. The US gets a formal commitment to nuclear talks with a defined timeline and the continued leverage of a blockade that lifts only as talks proceed.
The Iran Response Thursday
Iran is still reviewing the United States’ latest proposal. “The US plan and proposal is still under review by Iran, and after finalizing its viewpoints, Iran will convey them to the Pakistani side,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei told ISNA on Wednesday.
Iran is expected to hand over its response to mediators about the US proposal to end the war on Thursday, a regional source told CNN.
Thursday is the day. If Iran’s response is positive — even partially — the MOU could be signed within days. If Iran’s response is negative, the CENTCOM “short and powerful” strike plan moves from its folder to the runway. The difference between those two outcomes is the difference between gas at $4.48 and a deal that begins the process of returning it to $3.00.
