The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran, signed at the Palace of Versailles on June 17, 2026, formally collapsed over 48 hours on July 8 and 9 in a back-and-forth exchange of strikes that has left approximately 14 Iranians dead, wounded 78 others, prompted air raid sirens across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan, closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic for the second time this year, and sent oil prices back above $78 per barrel.
President Trump, speaking at the NATO summit in Ankara, called the ceasefire “over” and labelled Iranian leaders “scum” before saying he would still allow negotiations to continue. The most intense military exchange since the war began in February has now produced a conflict with no active diplomatic framework, no functioning ceasefire and no clear end state.
How It Escalated — Hour by Hour
The collapse of the ceasefire followed a specific and rapid sequence. On Tuesday July 8, Iranian forces attacked at least three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz — attacks that the US and its Gulf allies blamed squarely on Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and which Trump described as the trigger for everything that followed.
In response, US Central Command launched an initial wave of strikes targeting approximately 80 locations across Iran, focused on air defences, coastal radar sites, command-and-control networks and anti-ship missile capabilities along Iran’s southern coastline. CENTCOM said the goal was to degrade Iran’s ability to interfere with international commerce in the strait. Iran said at least eight of its air and naval personnel were killed in the US strikes. Iran retaliated with strikes on at least 85 US military installations across Bahrain and Kuwait. Iran’s IRGC said its forces also shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone.
On Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the United States launched a second, larger wave of strikes. The American military said it hit around 90 targets in airstrikes across Iran on Wednesday, in what CBS News described as the largest single day of US military strikes since the ceasefire was established. The second wave targeted facilities in the eastern Iranian cities of Iranshahr, Bandar Abbas, Konarak, Chabahar and Bushehr, as well as Aq Qala in northeastern Iran.
Among the most notable targets was Chabahar — Iran’s only ocean-facing commercial port and a strategically important logistics hub outside the Persian Gulf. Striking Chabahar marked the first US attack there since the ceasefire, underscoring Washington’s shift toward targeting infrastructure that could support Iran’s maritime operations.
In Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan province, at least three people were killed Thursday, state media reported. In Iranshahr, authorities said a strike killed a firefighter at an airport. Those fatalities followed the deaths of at least nine members of Iran’s armed forces in Wednesday’s strikes, bringing the two-day confirmed death toll in Iran to at least 14, with 78 wounded, according to the Iranian Health Ministry.
What Iran Did in Response
Iran did not limit its retaliation to the US. Tehran retaliated with attacks on US allies across the Middle East — a wave of strikes that sparked alerts in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and hours later in Jordan. Iran’s IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said “the origin of any support for the aggressor US military” would be a legitimate target, directly threatening Gulf nations hosting American installations.
Bahrain and Kuwait activated air raid sirens for the third time in weeks. Qatar briefly activated precautionary measures amid fears the conflict could spread further. Jordan’s government spokesman said all incoming fire from Iran had been intercepted. In Kuwait, the military said falling debris from interceptions wounded one person as it shot down three ballistic missiles, a cruise missile and 10 drones.
Iranian state media reported explosions in several locations, including Bushehr — home to Iran’s nuclear power plant complex — and southern port cities. A local official in Bushehr said an airstrike had hit the perimeter of the nuclear power plant. The US officially denied targeting the Bushehr nuclear facility, attributing the explosions near it to strikes on adjacent military infrastructure.
What Experts Say About the Strikes’ Strategic Logic — and Its Limits
The fundamental challenge the US faces in this conflict has not changed since February: it is relatively straightforward to degrade Iran’s military infrastructure from the air, but degrading it sufficiently to remove Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is a different and far harder proposition.
Carl Schuster, former director of the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, told CNN: “The ceasefire had little chance of survival because the Iranian government that signed it has no authority over the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.” James Stavridis, a retired US Navy admiral who had sailed through the Strait of Hormuz many times, made the same point differently: “You can degrade their ability significantly but you cannot, in this new era of drones, take away that ability.”
CENTCOM said the operation in the two days hit approximately 90 targets, including missile launchers, drone infrastructure, command centres, coastal surveillance systems, anti-ship capabilities and logistics hubs. It was “effective — for example 60 small boats have been destroyed,” according to one assessment. But destroying small boats and degrading coastal radar does not prevent Iran from using mines, submarine drones, or longer-range anti-ship missiles from deeper in Iranian territory.
Trump’s Threats and Contradictions
Trump’s public statements throughout the two-day exchange reflected the fundamental contradiction in his Iran policy: simultaneous determination to escalate and reluctance to commit to sustained military action. He warned Tehran that additional attacks on shipping or US forces would trigger even stronger military action.
He said the US could reinstate its naval blockade and target Iran’s electricity and water plants — attacks that international law experts described as potential war crimes. He called Iranian leaders “scum.” But he also said he did not think the new fighting would result in “long-term” military action and insisted that Iran was “desperate to make a deal.”
Speaking from Air Force One after leaving Ankara, Trump told reporters: “I just don’t know that they’re worthy of making a deal. I don’t know that they’re going to honor the deal. That’s the problem.” He added that he believed Iran wanted to end the war despite the recent escalation. “Because they’re sort of crazy, to be honest with you,” he said when asked why Iran would attack commercial vessels during an active ceasefire.
Where Things Stand Thursday Morning
As of Thursday morning, at least 13 commercial vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, according to MarineTraffic data — a fraction of the normal daily traffic. Shipping had effectively stopped through the strait once again, with insurance markets withdrawing coverage for Gulf of Oman and Hormuz transits within hours of the first new strikes. Oil prices remain elevated above $78 per barrel.
No active diplomatic framework exists between the US and Iran. The 60-day ceasefire window has expired. Mojtaba Khamenei has still not appeared in public since February 28. And Iran’s parliament speaker — one of Tehran’s lead negotiators — said publicly on Thursday: “If you strike, you’ll get hit.”
