The Iran war has now claimed its most consequential institutional casualty: OPEC itself. The United Arab Emirates — one of the cartel’s three most powerful members — announced Tuesday it is withdrawing from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and OPEC+, effective May 1.
The Announcement
The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC, a decades-old cartel of the world’s top oil exporters, delivering a shock that will ripple through global oil markets at a time of unprecedented turmoil caused by the Iran war.
The UAE plans to withdraw from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Friday, the UAE’s state news agency WAM reported Tuesday. The decision also extends to OPEC+, a larger group that consists of other oil producers such as Russia.
The loss of the UAE, a longstanding OPEC member since 1967, could create disarray and weaken the oil cartel, which has usually sought to show a united front despite internal disagreements. Twelve-nation OPEC will lose an important member on May 1, 2026.
Why the UAE Did It — And Why Now
The United Arab Emirates chose to leave the OPEC oil cartel now because the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the impact of its exit on the oil market will be limited, Minister of Energy Suhail Al Mazrouei told CNN. “Timing is right because it will not significantly impact the market and the price because the Strait of Hormuz is closed and restricted,” he said. “So everyone is constrained, including us, but taking the decision now will help all of our friends not feel the pressure on the price.”
“The world needs more energy. The world needs more resources, and UAE wanted to be unconstrained by any groups,” the country’s energy minister said in an interview with the New York Times.
The UAE’s logic is strategically elegant: leave OPEC while Hormuz is closed, when the exit causes minimum market disruption. Then, when Hormuz reopens — whether in weeks or months — the UAE is free to pump at full capacity with no cartel constraints, positioning itself to capture maximum market share at the moment global supply is most needed.
What It Means for Production
OPEC quotas had most recently limited the UAE to 3.2 million barrels of production a day, when it has capacity to produce closer to 5 million barrels a day. The potential additional supply amounts to around 1-2% of global oil demand.
The implications for global energy markets of the UAE pumping more oil will likely be limited in the short-term given that the Strait of Hormuz still remains largely shut. But once the strait reopens, global supplies will likely be higher than would otherwise have been the case.
The Wider OPEC Threat
The UAE’s exit from OPEC+ could prompt other members to follow suit. “If there is a time to leave, now is the time,” Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy, told CNN. “You might see Kazakhstan leave as well. That’s another significant producer that wants to grow.”
The decision would reduce OPEC’s control of global supply from around 30% to 26%. “The ties binding OPEC members together have loosened,” said David Oxley, chief climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics. The UAE’s departure delivers a structural blow to OPEC’s market power that predates and outlasts the Iran war.
“The UAE withdrawal marks a significant shift for OPEC,” Rystad energy analyst Jorge Leon said. “While near-term effects may be muted given ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the longer-term implication is a structurally weaker OPEC.”
