Within hours of the ceasefire announcement that had sent oil prices plummeting and crowds into the streets of Tehran, one of its most consequential ambiguities became impossible to ignore. Pakistan’s prime minister said the truce applied everywhere, including Lebanon. Israel’s prime minister said it did not. And as the sun rose on Wednesday, Israeli airstrikes continued across southern Lebanon and the outskirts of Beirut.
For the more than one million Lebanese people displaced by six weeks of Israeli ground invasion, the news was not relief. It was another cruel suspension.
The Contradiction at the Heart of the Deal
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who helped broker the agreement, announced that the US, Iran, and their allies had agreed to an “immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere,” effective immediately.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu moved quickly to contradict that claim. While welcoming Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks, Netanyahu’s office stressed in a statement that the two-week ceasefire “does not include Lebanon.” Israel, he said, would continue its operations there.
Hezbollah said in a statement that it insisted the ceasefire included Lebanon. But it added that if the Israeli enemy did not adhere to the ceasefire, “no party will commit to it, and there will be a response from the region, including Iran.” As of Wednesday morning, Hezbollah appeared to be holding its fire. But Israeli strikes had already resumed across southern Lebanon, and fresh evacuation orders had been issued for parts of Beirut.
Lebanon’s economy minister Amer Bisat told CNBC his country was getting “mixed signals.” He described the past five weeks as a “huge setback,” estimating that Lebanon had lost “around 5 to 7 percent of GDP in that very short period of time” and that “all the recovery we saw last year has disappeared in less than a month.”
What Israel Says
Netanyahu’s position is rooted in a strategic calculation that has been consistent throughout the war. Israel views its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon as a separate conflict — one linked to the Iran war by Hezbollah’s decision to open a second front in solidarity with Tehran, but legally and militarily distinct.
Netanyahu said Israel backed efforts to ensure Iran no longer posed a “nuclear, missile, and terror threat” to the region. Israel’s military later confirmed it continued fighting and ground operations against Hezbollah.
Israel struck what it called the largest number of targets in Lebanon since the start of the war on Wednesday, even as the ceasefire took effect. Strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, and evacuation orders were issued for the city of Tyre.
What This Means for Displaced Lebanese
Many of the more than one million people displaced by Israel’s invasion for more than six weeks were ready to go back home after the ceasefire announcement. But Lebanese authorities told them to stay put as conditions remained unsafe following Netanyahu’s statement.
Displaced children were seen sitting on trucks with packed belongings in the southern Lebanese port city of Sidon, waiting for an official ceasefire decision they hoped would allow them to return to their villages.
The situation is particularly acute because Israel has made clear it intends to maintain a permanent security zone in parts of southern Lebanon — meaning that even if fighting stops entirely, many residents may not be allowed to return to their homes at all.
What the Analysts Say
Analysts at King’s College London warned that “the greatest threat to any ceasefire in the region remains Israel,” adding that Israel prefers “ambiguous ceasefire” deals that allow it to return to fighting when conditions favor Israeli forces. One analyst noted that Iran would need to ensure Israel had no easy path to resume what he called “mowing the lawn” operations.
Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East programme at Chatham House, said: “Iran has pushed for the ceasefire to extend to Lebanon, viewing the conflict there as part of the same confrontation. Gulf states, meanwhile, are seeking assurances that they will not remain exposed to repeated pressure on their infrastructure and shipping routes, while Israel remains deeply skeptical of any arrangement that leaves Iran’s missile, nuclear and regional capabilities intact.” She warned that “these are difficult issues that will not be easily resolved in a matter of weeks.”
The Risk to the Broader Ceasefire
Lebanon’s exclusion is not simply a side issue. It is a direct threat to the ceasefire’s coherence. Iran has consistently framed Hezbollah’s involvement in the war as a response to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, and any framework that pauses fighting in Iran while allowing it to continue against Iran’s primary regional ally undermines Tehran’s core narrative.
Pakistan’s prime minister acknowledged that ceasefire violations had been reported “at a few places across the conflict zone” and urged “all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role toward peaceful settlement.”
The fundamental problem, as one analyst put it, is clear: “The greatest threat to any ceasefire in the region remains Israel.” Iran must ensure the deal does not become a framework that protects the US while giving Israel freedom of action in Lebanon.
What Happens Next
The Islamabad talks on Friday will need to address Lebanon’s status explicitly if they are to produce anything durable. The Lebanese government, Hezbollah, Israel, the US, and Iran all have different visions of what a ceasefire in Lebanon should look like — and whether one should exist at all.
At least 1,497 people have been killed in Lebanon since the war erupted, including 57 health workers, Lebanese authorities say. Hundreds of thousands remain in shelters, without homes to return to, waiting for a diplomatic resolution that has so far left their country behind.
