After nearly 40 days of war, missile exchanges, a global energy crisis, and a succession of deadlines that came and went, the United States and Iran agreed on Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire.
The deal, brokered by Pakistan, came barely 90 minutes before President Trump’s threatened 8 PM Eastern Time deadline — the one he had warned would see Iran lose its bridges, power plants, and civilization itself.
The announcement, made on Truth Social, sent oil prices plummeting and stock markets surging worldwide. But the truce is fragile, partial, and disputed in its scope — and the two weeks ahead will determine whether it becomes the foundation of a lasting peace or simply the prelude to a more dangerous phase of the conflict.
How the Deal Happened
Roughly 90 minutes before the 8 PM deadline Trump had set for Iran to agree to end the war, the US president announced a “double sided ceasefire” between the countries. As part of the agreement, set to take effect immediately, Trump said the US and Israel would suspend bombing Iran for two weeks, subject to Iran following through on its commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire period.
Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran provided a 10-point peace proposal, which he called “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” He added that the next two weeks would allow a final agreement to be drawn up.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who had been acting as the key intermediary between Tehran and Washington, announced that the ceasefire would take effect immediately and invited delegations from the US and Iran to Islamabad on Friday, April 10, to “settle all disputes.” “Both parties have displayed remarkable wisdom and understanding and have remained constructively engaged in furthering the cause of peace and stability,” Sharif wrote on X.
The negotiations behind the deal involved Pakistan’s prime minister and military chief working in tandem, with Egyptian and Turkish diplomats providing parallel channels. US Vice President JD Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were expected to attend the Islamabad talks.
Iran’s Response
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed it had accepted the two-week ceasefire. Its statement said it would negotiate with the United States in Islamabad beginning Friday. However, it also stated: “This does not signify the termination of the war. Our hands remain upon the trigger, and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force.”
Iranian leaders portrayed the ceasefire as a victory, noting that the US had agreed to “the general framework” of Iran’s 10-point proposal. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said: “Good news to the dear nation of Iran! Nearly all the objectives of the war have been achieved.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that if attacks against Iran were halted, Iranian operations would cease as well. The country’s military would coordinate safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the ceasefire period.
The Strait of Hormuz
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply normally flows — was the central condition of the agreement from the US side.
At least two vessels safely transited through the Strait of Hormuz in the hours after the ceasefire was announced, according to tracking data from MarineTraffic — a Greek-owned bulk carrier and a Liberia-flagged vessel. However, MarineTraffic also reported that hundreds of vessels remained in the region, including 426 tankers, 34 liquefied petroleum gas carriers, and 19 liquefied natural gas vessels, all waiting to move.
The ceasefire may formalize Iran’s new practice of charging ships passing through the strait. The plan allows for both Iran and Oman to collect fees on ships transiting through the waterway, according to a regional official. Transit fees of $1 to $2 million per tanker would add roughly $1 per barrel to the cost of oil transported through the strait, according to one analysis — modest in global energy terms, but significant as a geopolitical precedent.
Iran is reportedly finalizing a joint maritime protocol with Oman to institutionalize coordinated management of tanker traffic through the strait, a move that could embed Iranian authority over the crucial energy artery into a standing bilateral agreement.
Both Sides Claim Victory
The ceasefire produced an immediate and unusual spectacle: two adversaries both declaring they had won.
Trump described the deal as “total and complete victory,” saying the US received a “workable” 10-point proposal from Iran and that the parties were “very far along in reaching a definitive agreement for long-term peace.”
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council simultaneously described the ceasefire as an “enduring defeat” for Washington, citing that the US had been forced to accept Iran’s 10-point plan as the basis for talks.
In the streets of Tehran, some pro-government demonstrators burned American and Israeli flags, screaming “Death to America, death to Israel,” underscoring the anger among hardliners who had been preparing for an apocalyptic confrontation with the United States.
Uncertainty Remains
The ceasefire is not a clean ending. In the hours after the announcement, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait all reported attacks, raising immediate questions about whether the truce would hold. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said his department “has done its part for now” but would remain “vigilant” and “ready.”
The dispute over whether Lebanon is included in the ceasefire emerged almost immediately — a fracture that threatens to undermine the deal’s credibility before talks even begin. And Iran’s nuclear program, its enriched uranium stockpile, and its regional proxy network remain unresolved — the hardest issues, deferred to Islamabad.
Pratibha Thaker of the Economist Intelligence Unit described the agreement as “a huge relief” but warned: “What we are seeing right now is a pause in the conflict, rather than any kind of lasting resolution. The ceasefire hinges on Iran suspending its military activity and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Crucially, there is a deep trust deficit on both sides.”
What Happens Next
US and Iranian delegations are due to meet in Islamabad on Friday, April 10, for the first direct talks of the war. The agenda is formidable: a permanent end to hostilities, Iran’s nuclear program, the future of the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, war reparations, and the fate of Lebanon.
US Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine told reporters that US forces “stand ready, if ordered or called upon, to resume combat operations.” The two-week window is not a peace settlement. It is a test of whether peace is possible.
