For a brief stretch of hours on Tuesday, it appeared that diplomacy might pull the US-Iran war back from its next precipice. Progress was made. Messages were exchanged. Mediators from three countries pushed toward a deal. But as Trump’s 8 PM Eastern Time deadline expired, neither side had agreed to the terms that would prevent a sharp new escalation in the six-week-old conflict.
The outcome now depends on decisions being made in Washington, Tehran, and the capitals of countries working between them — Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey — whose role in this conflict has become as consequential as any military operation.
What Happened in the Final Hours
Progress was made in the final 24 hours of negotiations between the US and Iran, though reaching a ceasefire deal by Trump’s 8 PM deadline still looked like a long shot, according to a US official, an Israeli official, and two other sources with knowledge of the talks. The thinking in the White House had shifted from “can we get there?” to “can we get there by 8 o’clock tonight?”
Vice President Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s adviser Jared Kushner were all involved in the negotiations. Witkoff also maintained a direct channel of communication with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Iran sent a counter-proposal to the US via mediators on Monday. While it was described as incompatible with US positions, the White House saw it as somewhat encouraging. “The last proposal we got wasn’t really what we wanted, but it was a lot better than we expected,” a US official said. The mediators then worked with the Iranians on amendments and redrafting.
The main option under discussion was a set of confidence-building measures by both sides focused on reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for guarantees about ending the war. A possible in-person meeting between a US delegation led by Vance and an Iranian delegation was also discussed, with Islamabad mentioned as a possible venue.
Iran’s Position
Iran publicly rejected the US proposal for a temporary ceasefire. Through Pakistani mediators, Tehran sent a 10-point proposal emphasizing the need for a permanent end to the war, including demands such as lifting sanctions and ending other conflicts in the region. Iranian state media reported that Tehran would reject a temporary ceasefire on the grounds that during previous negotiation rounds, the Trump administration had launched military strikes while talks were still ongoing.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei was direct: “Negotiation is in no way compatible with ultimatum, crime, or the threat to commit war crimes.”
According to the Iranian state news agency IRNA, the Iranian response was discussed internally for two weeks before being sent to Pakistani mediators. The Iranian proposal emphasized the need for a permanent end to the war rather than any temporary arrangement. Sources with knowledge of the negotiations described this as the key sticking point, with mediators working on different formulas to guarantee that any ceasefire would lead to a permanent resolution.
The US Position
Trump acknowledged Iran’s proposal and described it as “a significant proposal” and “a very significant step,” but added it was “not good enough.” He reiterated his threats to attack Iran’s energy and transportation infrastructure.
Trump also stressed he would not give up on his demand that Iran hand over all of its enriched uranium and commit to halting enrichment entirely — a condition Iran has consistently refused.
A White House official confirmed that the 45-day ceasefire plan was “one of many ideas” being discussed but said Trump had not signed off on it. “Operation Epic Fury continues,” the official said.
Trump had described Iran’s negotiating style in unusually candid terms. “We’re communicating like they used to communicate 2,000 years ago, with children bringing a note back and forth,” he told reporters.
The Structure of a Possible Deal
The negotiations followed a two-phase structure: a first phase involving a 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated, with the option to extend the ceasefire if more time were needed; and a second phase constituting a full agreement to end the war. The mediators believed that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resolving Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile could only happen under a final deal.
A source with direct knowledge said mediators were highly concerned that any US-Israeli strike on Iran’s energy infrastructure would provoke Iranian retaliation against energy and water facilities in Gulf states — a scenario with potentially catastrophic regional consequences.
Israel’s Objection
Behind the scenes, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had warned Trump against agreeing to a ceasefire deal. Israel believed any ceasefire must require Iran to hand over all of its enriched uranium and commit to a complete halt of enrichment activities.
Israel remained skeptical that any deal was achievable, according to officials briefed on the discussions.
What Happens Next
With the deadline now passed, the world is watching for signals from the White House on whether it will follow through on threats to strike Iranian power plants and bridges — actions that legal experts have described as potential war crimes under international and US law — or whether diplomacy will be given more time.
According to one source familiar with the talks: “The mediators are pushing very hard. Talks are serious. We will wait for the Iranian decision.”
The next moves by both sides will determine whether this conflict’s sixth week ends with a diplomatic breakthrough or a significant escalation that would send energy markets, regional stability, and civilian populations into deeper crisis.
