The UK Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee warned on Thursday that the threat of physical attacks by Iran on the UK now equals that of Russia.
“Whilst Iran’s activity appears to be less strategic and on a smaller scale than Russia and China, Iran poses a wide-ranging, persistent, and sophisticated threat to UK national security, which should not be underestimated,” the report states.
Key Findings on Iranian Threats
The report highlights that the number of intelligence officers in the Iranian Intelligence Service (IIS)—in the tens of thousands—is significantly smaller than that of Russia and China, both of which have forces in the low hundreds of thousands. However, the report underscores that Iran still poses a significant threat to the UK.
Iran’s primary strategic objectives include:
- Reducing the UK’s military presence in the region.
- Undermining UK relationships with the US and Israel.
- Weakening UK security relationships in the Middle East.
- Silencing criticism of Iran from both the UK and its residents.
The committee cited instances of 15 attempted murders or kidnappings of British nationals or UK residents orchestrated by Iran, stating that the physical threat from Iran is “comparable with the threat posed by Russia.”
This threat is also influenced by the bilateral relationship between Iran and the UK, which can shift based on UK international engagement and specific policies.
Iran’s Approach to the UK
The report notes that Iran’s stance towards the UK is closely tied to its relations with the US, reflecting the strong alignment between the two Western nations.
Historically, Iran views the UK as a significant adversary—dubbed a ‘cunning fox’—opposed to its regime and perceived as seeking regime change within Iran. Consequently, Iranian leadership believes the UK presents a military and intelligence threat in the Middle East, although some witnesses suggested that the UK ranks behind the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia on the priority list.
A Chaotic Threat Landscape
Kevan Jones, chairman of the Intelligence and Security Committee, warned of Iran’s “high appetite for risk when conducting offensive activity” abroad. According to The Independent, he stated, “Its intelligence services are ferociously well-resourced with significant areas of asymmetric strength.”
Jones characterized Iran’s activity as less strategic compared to that of China and Russia, describing the threat as “slightly chaotic.” He explained, “It is not as strategic as we have seen from the Chinese and the Russians. There seem to be waves of activities rather than a consistent plan.”
Threats from Iranian-Aligned Groups
The report identifies several militant and terrorist groups in the Middle East that receive support from Iran, such as Kata’ib Hizbollah in Iraq and Al-Qaeda. These groups have demonstrated both the capability and intent to threaten UK interests.
While other groups, like Lebanese Hizbollah, have regional focus and publicly stated objectives that do not align with targeting the UK, they still retain the capacity to launch attacks on UK interests.
Conclusion and Scope
The Intelligence and Security Committee concluded its evidence-gathering in August 2023, after two years of work, but emphasized that the findings remain relevant today. The report questioned whether UK sanctions against individuals would lead to real behavioral change or unwittingly push Iran closer to China.
